Accelerate the industrialization of TOPCon photovoltaic cells

TOPCon photovoltaic cells are becoming an area where listed companies compete for layout. 

GCL Integration recently released an announcement on signing an investment agreement with the People's Government of Wanxi District, Wuhu City on the 20GW photovoltaic cell and supporting industry production base project, and reached a cooperation intention on investing in the construction of the 20GW TOPCon photovoltaic cell and supporting industry production base project. Industry insiders told China Securities News that since this year, with the continuous production of TOPCon battery project, the industrialization of this technology route is speeding up. 

 

Compete for layout

TOPCon is a tunneling oxide passivation contact solar cell technology based on the selective carrier principle. It retains and uses the existing traditional P-type battery equipment manufacturing process to the maximum extent, greatly simplifies the battery production process, has low difficulty in mass production, and has high compatibility with the process equipment production line, which is compatible with the high-temperature preparation process production line of PERC and N-PERC double-sided batteries. 

As for the reason for the layout of the photovoltaic cell sector, the person in charge of GCL Integration told reporters that it was mainly to meet the capacity supporting needs of GCL Integrated Module Base in Hefei. After the completion of the project, the company will have the independent capacity of TOPCon battery, effectively improve the overall gross profit rate of the industrial chain, mitigate supply chain risks, and enhance the profitability and market competitiveness of the enterprise. 

The announcement shows that the total investment of the project is 8 billion yuan (including working capital), which will be invested and constructed in two phases of two years from 2022 to 2024, with each phase of 10GW. Among them, the first phase investment is 3.5 billion yuan, and the construction is planned to start in November. According to the above person in charge, as the future project gradually reaches production capacity, in addition to meeting the production needs of self produced components in Hefei Component Base, it can fully supply to the market. 

GCLSI is not the only player pouring into the PV track. According to the reporter's rough statistics, listed companies such as Trina Solar, Zhonglai Shares, and JA Solar have expanded the production capacity of TOPCon batteries. Royal Group, Mubang High-Tech and other companies are started cross-border layout, and recently disclosed the expansion plans of 20GW and 10GW TOPCon battery projects respectively. 

It is worth mentioning that TOPCon battery projects of many leading enterprises have started to be put into production. When Jinko Energy recently received an investigation from the agency, it said that at present, the 16GW TOPCon battery project of Jinko Solar Phase I has been completed and put into full production. In the second half of the year, Jinko Solar Hefei Phase II 8GW and Jianshan Phase II 11GW battery projects will also be put into production successively. 

According to the 2022 semi annual report of Tongwei Group, the company plans to build an 8.5GW TOPCon battery production line, which is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2022. 

On July 7, Trina Solar said at the semi annual performance presentation meeting in 2022 that TOPCon had reached the stage of mass production with high efficiency and low cost, so it took the lead in promoting mass production of this technology. 

 

Continuous heat

As an important part of the PV industry chain, the continuous growth of the PV cell market mainly benefits from the high demand for PV terminals. An insider told the reporter that the current purchasing power of component manufacturers has not declined, and the demand for high-efficiency battery chips has increased greatly, making the battery link that was in short supply even more popular. 

According to the data on Tongwei Solar's official website, on September 27, Tongwei announced that it would increase the quotation of single crystal PERC cells across the line, among which, the 166 size and 182 size cells would increase by 0.02 yuan/W, and the 210 size cells would increase by 0.03 yuan/watt, respectively, 1.31 yuan/ W 1.33 yuan/watt, and 1.33 yuan/ W. This is also the 10th price adjustment of Tongwei Solar this year. Compared with the quotation in January, its latest price increased by 20.18%, 18.75% and 18.75% respectively. On October 25, Tongwei official website announced the latest battery chip quotation, which has not changed compared with the previous quotation. 

In the opinion of the above industry insiders, with the increasingly fierce competition in the photovoltaic industry, vertical integration has become the mainstream of the industry, and multiple industrial links have become an important strategy for photovoltaic enterprises to seek development and transformation. In addition to the silicon material link with huge investment threshold, the battery link is located in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry, with relatively high technical threshold and high gross profit per watt. Therefore, it has also become the focus of the layout of photovoltaic leaders, which can ensure the safety of the supply chain, further improve the anti risk ability, and prepare for penetrating the cycle and winning in the fierce competition. 

 

Industrialization acceleration

In recent years, with the rapid development of photovoltaic industry, technology upgrading plays the most important role. Many experts told reporters that TOPCon is the technical route of rapid industrialization at present. First, because PERC battery technology has met the "ceiling", there is much room to improve the conversion efficiency of TOPCon battery; Second, TOPCon is compatible with the existing PERC production line, with relatively low transformation cost and more obvious advantages in improving efficiency and reducing cost. It is a cost-effective route in the next 2 to 3 years. 

According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2021, the market share of PERC cells will be about 91%, and the total share of heterojunction and TOPCon will be less than 3%. It is estimated that by 2025, the proportion of ultra-high efficiency battery technologies represented by heterojunction and TOPCon will be close to 40% in total, and it is expected to exceed 75% by 2030. 

At present, TOPCon battery has entered the stage of industrialization expansion. According to the statistics of Great Wall Glory Securities, as of June 15, 2022, the domestic built TOPCon capacity is 30.55GW, and the capacity under construction/to be built is 178.8GW. Among the capacity under construction, 62.30GW is expected to be put into production within the year. 

Recently, the Action Plan for Accelerating the Green and Low Carbon Innovative Development of Electric Power Equipment jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments pointed out that, through five to eight years, the focus on the development of efficient and low-cost photovoltaic cell technology in solar equipment, including TOPCon, HJT, IBC and other crystalline silicon solar cell technologies and the industrialization of perovskite, laminated battery module technologies. 

Many institutions are optimistic about the future development of TOPCon battery industrialization. China Merchants Securities said that TOPCon batteries have started mass production and are in the dividend period of new technology promotion. Advantage enterprises will enjoy the first dividend in terms of profits and shipments. TOPCon's industrialization has strong visibility of cost reduction and efficiency increase, and there is also a large space for optimization. It is expected that the profit cycle of its production line will be relatively long. 

Generally speaking, the iteration of photovoltaic new technology is a good opportunity for "new players" to seize the market share of traditional giants. However, many experts also said frankly that although the overall pattern of the industry has not yet been determined, for the photovoltaic cell field that requires huge capital investment and high technology threshold, it is still necessary to be vigilant about the concentrated cross-border behavior, especially the possible blind investment and "hot spot" behavior.

 

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